Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Commerce regarding the import beef quota and additional tariffs is expected to tighten supply in the beef and dairy markets, potentially leading to price increases and improved profitability for companies in the livestock sector [1] Company Summary - YouRan Dairy (09858) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 5.27 HKD with a transaction volume of 62.75 million HKD [1] - YouRan Dairy is the largest raw milk supplier in China, operating 100 farms and raising approximately 620,000 dairy cows, with an expected raw milk production of about 3.74 million tons in 2024, accounting for 12.1% of the national total [1] - The company is strategically positioned in the upstream industry, being the largest supplier of ruminant feed in China, and its subsidiary, Saike Xing, is the largest dairy cattle breeding company in the country [1] - YouRan Dairy is significantly supported by its major shareholder, Yili Group, which is expected to contribute 95% of the company's raw milk revenue in 2024, with YouRan accounting for about 40% of Yili's overall raw milk procurement [1] Industry Summary - The Ministry of Commerce has decided to implement a "country-specific quota and additional tariffs," with a total quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, and a 55% tariff on any excess [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the cattle inventory in the meat industry will decline by over 10% cumulatively in 2024 and the first half of 2025, impacting beef output in the second half of 2025 to 2026 [1] - The combination of decreasing import volumes and tightening supply is expected to drive up prices for beef and live cattle [1] - The ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory, coupled with increased demand from deep processing of dairy products and previous EU anti-subsidy rulings, is expected to support a rebound in milk prices, indicating a potential positive cycle for both beef and raw milk markets [1]
港股异动 | 优然牧业(09858)涨超4% 牛肉原奶周期有望共振 牧业公司盈利改善有支撑