Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Commerce regarding the import beef ruling is expected to tighten supply in the beef and dairy sectors, leading to price increases and improved profitability for companies like YouRan Agriculture (09858) [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - YouRan Agriculture's stock price increased by 2.78%, reaching HKD 5.18, with a trading volume of HKD 65.15 million [1][4]. Group 2: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Commerce has decided to implement "country-specific quotas and additional tariffs," with a quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, and a 55% tariff on excess imports [1][4]. - CITIC Securities forecasts a cumulative decline of over 10% in the cattle inventory for 2024 and the first half of 2025, which will impact beef output in the second half of 2025 and 2026, potentially leading to sustained price increases for beef and live cattle due to tighter supply [1][4]. Group 3: Dairy Sector Insights - The ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory, combined with increased demand from deep processing of dairy products, is expected to support a rebound in milk prices [1][4]. - The previous EU anti-subsidy ruling is anticipated to further bolster milk price recovery, creating a positive feedback loop for both beef and dairy sectors [1][4]. Group 4: Analyst Recommendations - Zhongyou Securities has released a report indicating that YouRan Agriculture will benefit from the ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory and significant increases in beef prices, leading to enhanced profitability from cattle sales [1][4]. - The effective adjustment of market supply through the deep processing capacity of dairy companies is expected to accelerate industry capacity clearance, contributing to the recovery of milk prices by 2026 [1][4].
优然牧业盘中涨超4% 中邮证券维持“买入”评级