百年指标发出看涨信号：美股牛市根基稳固

Core Viewpoint - A long-standing stock market indicator has released a strong bullish signal this week, indicating a continuation of the bull market that began at the end of 2022 [2][3] Group 1: Market Indicators - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average both reached closing historical highs on the same day, marking the first buy signal from Dow Theory in over a year [3] - The last closing historical high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was on January 5, while the Dow Jones Transportation Average had not reached a record since November 25, 2024 [3] - The S&P 400 MidCap Index also achieved its first closing historical high since December 11 of the previous year [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment - There is an increasing optimism among investors regarding the U.S. economy, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - Analysts have raised their overall earnings growth forecasts for companies, leading investors to bet on stocks that missed out on the AI boom, anticipating good performance by 2026 [4] Group 3: Dow Theory Explanation - Dow Theory is based on the symbiotic relationship between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which reflects the transportation of goods produced by industrial companies [5] - For a bullish signal to be issued by Dow Theory, both indices must confirm each other's historical highs, although the timing does not need to be identical [5] - The composition of both indices has changed significantly since the theory's inception over a century ago, with the Industrial Average now including financial and tech stocks, while the Transportation Average has evolved to include airlines and logistics companies [5]