太平洋证券：光伏行业反内卷加速供需重塑 重视新技术、新场景

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to accelerate supply-demand restructuring driven by the "anti-involution" trend, leading to gradual profit recovery by 2026 [1] Group 1: Supply-Demand Restructuring - The "anti-involution" spirit is deeply penetrating the photovoltaic industry, with main chain prices recovering from the top down, and auxiliary material leading companies showing significant profit recovery by Q3 2025 [1] - The rapid development of energy storage, alongside the implementation of grid parity for solar storage in key markets like China, the US, and Europe, is expected to alleviate the impact of increased photovoltaic installations on the grid [1] - The long-term demand outlook is optimistic due to rising computing power needs and breakthroughs in core photovoltaic technologies for space stations, which will open new application scenarios [1] Group 2: Technology Iteration and Profit Recovery - The penetration rate of low-silver and silver-free technologies is expected to rise quickly, with leading companies likely to recover profits faster than the industry average due to rapid cost reduction in component production [2] - The introduction of low-silver solutions by JinkoSolar and silver-free technologies by LONGi Green Energy is highlighted as key developments in this technology iteration [2] Group 3: Auxiliary Material Companies - Auxiliary material companies are expected to accelerate profit recovery through diversified business layouts, as the pressure on the photovoltaic main chain has been ongoing for over three years [3] - Leading companies in auxiliary materials are preparing for a second growth phase, with non-photovoltaic business proportions expected to increase, contributing to revenue and profit reversals [3] Group 4: Beneficiary Analysis - Companies leading in low-silver and silver-free technology iterations, such as LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Aiko Solar, and Tongwei Co., are expected to benefit from cost advantages [4] - Companies actively integrating energy storage with photovoltaic operations, like Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and JA Solar, are likely to see profit recovery [4] - Leading companies in supporting facilities, such as DKE Holdings, Juhua Materials, and Foster, are expected to continue profit recovery through new technology breakthroughs and business expansions [4]