伯恩斯坦：一季度铜均价将达到1.15万美元，下半年回落至1万美元

Group 1 - Bernstein forecasts an average copper price of $11,500 per ton in Q1 2026, followed by a decline to approximately $10,000 per ton in the second half of the year due to weakening market momentum [2] - Recent copper prices have surpassed $13,000 per ton, attributed to supply disruptions and human factors such as arbitrage trading and labor strikes [2] - The current high copper prices are supported by a structural demand from ongoing electrification trends, which will continue to bolster long-term demand for copper [2] Group 2 - Bernstein anticipates a normalization period for copper prices by 2026, driven by slowing demand growth and the increase of substitutes [2] - A potential slowdown in electric vehicle sales later this year may negatively impact market sentiment [2] - The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, with negative news related to artificial intelligence and the electric vehicle industry potentially triggering rapid liquidation of speculative positions, leading to significant price corrections [2] Group 3 - China, as the largest copper consumer globally, faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [3] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain [3]