“短缺终将导致过剩”！a16z安德森2026年展望：AI芯片将迎来产能爆发与价格崩塌

Core Insights - The discussion emphasizes that the current AI revolution is unprecedented in scale, comparable to electricity and microprocessors, and is still in its early stages [4][6][12] - The rapid decline in AI costs, described as "hyper deflation," is expected to drive explosive demand growth [4][6][35] - Historical patterns suggest that shortages in AI infrastructure, such as GPUs, will lead to oversupply and further cost reductions in the future [4][6][35] AI Technology Landscape - AI is viewed as a transformative technology that surpasses the internet in magnitude, with its current phase being very early [6][12] - The cost of AI is decreasing at a rate faster than Moore's Law, leading to significant demand growth [6][35] - The future AI market structure will resemble the computer industry, with a few "god-tier models" at the top and numerous low-cost "small models" at the periphery [6][10] US-China Competition - The emergence of Chinese models like DeepSeek and Kimi has surprised both Washington and Silicon Valley, indicating significant progress in open-source models from China [5][7][52] - The competition is characterized as a dual hegemony, with both the US and China being the primary players in AI development [5][7][51] Business Models and Pricing - A shift from "pay-per-token" to "value-based pricing" is occurring in AI applications, allowing companies to capture more value from productivity gains [9][34] - AI startups are moving beyond being mere wrappers around large models and are integrating their own models, enhancing their competitive edge [9][34] AI Democratization - Advanced AI technologies are becoming accessible to the public, breaking down barriers and allowing widespread use [6][21] - Despite public fears about AI replacing jobs, actual behavior shows a rapid adoption of AI technologies [6][21] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape is shifting, with a reduced risk of federal-level restrictions on AI, as there is bipartisan support for innovation [7][59] - State-level regulations are emerging, leading to a fragmented legal environment that could hinder progress [59][60] AI Chip Development - The AI chip market is expected to see significant investment and innovation, with a potential oversupply in the coming years as companies ramp up production [4][45] - The competition in chip development is intensifying, with both established companies and startups entering the market [45][49]