东海证券：存储涨价势头不减 AI仍为主线叙事

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a continuous recovery in December, with prices on an upward trend, highlighting structural opportunities in AI computing power, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, key components, and storage price increases [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Demand and Supply - Global semiconductor demand showed improvement in December, with slight growth in PC and smartphone sales, and rapid growth in TWS headphones, wearable devices, and smart home products, while AI servers and new energy vehicles maintained high growth [2][4] - Despite high inventory levels, demand in certain segments driven by AI is leading to price increases from upstream wafer foundries, although memory price hikes may slow down shipments of consumer electronics like smartphones and PCs [2][3] - The overall semiconductor supply-demand balance is expected to remain favorable in January, with global semiconductor sales in October showing a year-on-year increase of 27.23% and a cumulative increase of 21.19% from January to October [3] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - In December, the price of storage modules increased significantly, with ranges from 10.42% to 68.42%, and DRAM and NAND flash prices also saw increases between 1.73% and 57.42% [3] - The global semiconductor equipment shipment value increased by 10.80% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating a stronger procurement trend [3] Group 3: Key Players and Market Developments - New domestic GPU companies like Moore Threads and Muxi have recently gone public, while established firms like Broadcom and Micron reported significant growth in Q4 driven by AI [2][5] - The approval of NVIDIA's H200 for export to China is expected to enhance domestic large model training efficiency, indicating a shift in U.S. export policies for AI chips [5][6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The industry is advised to focus on key players benefiting from strong domestic and international demand in the AIOT sector, as well as those in the AI innovation-driven segment, semiconductor equipment, and storage sectors [7] - Specific companies to watch include Lexin Technology, Cambrian, and various semiconductor equipment manufacturers, as well as those in the power and CIS sectors [7]