卡游IPO对赌倒计时，米哈游投资的Suplay想反超抢滩“卡牌第一股”？|观察

Core Viewpoint - Suplay, a trendy IP consumer goods company, has submitted its IPO application to compete for the title of "first card stock" amidst challenges faced by the card gaming industry, particularly with the ongoing struggles of its competitor, 卡游 [1][2]. Company Overview - Founded in late 2019, Suplay focuses on global IP collectibles and consumer products, achieving nearly 300 million RMB in revenue within six years [3]. - The company has a unique positioning targeting adult collectors, with over 99% of its buyers being 18 years or older, distancing itself from the issues associated with younger consumers [1][2]. - Suplay's revenue is heavily reliant on external licensed IPs, with only 4% of its income coming from its own IPs, indicating a significant dependency on external sources [1][16][17]. Financial Performance - Suplay's revenue for 2023, 2024, and the first three quarters of 2025 is projected to be 145.725 million RMB, 280.504 million RMB, and 283.293 million RMB, respectively [5][10]. - The net profit for the same periods is expected to be 2.949 million RMB, 49.115 million RMB, and 37.074 million RMB [5][10]. - The gross profit margins for Suplay are 41.7%, 45.8%, and 54.5% for the respective years, which are lower than its competitor 卡游's margins [14]. Market Position and Strategy - Suplay claims the top position in the Chinese collectible non-combat card market, surpassing the combined revenue of its closest competitors [3]. - The company has shifted its focus from consumer products to collectible cards, with the latter's revenue share increasing from 32.9% in 2023 to 70% in 2025 [9][10]. - Suplay's pricing strategy for collectible cards is significantly higher than that of 卡游, with average sales prices for collectible cards being 31 RMB, 42.3 RMB, and 43 RMB for the respective years [12]. IP Dependency and Risks - The majority of Suplay's revenue comes from a few licensed IPs, with the top five contributing approximately 47.8%, 61.5%, and 77.7% of total revenue over the years [19]. - The company faces challenges in maintaining the popularity of its own IPs, which have shown weak market performance [19]. - Suplay's reliance on external IPs poses risks, as many of these agreements are non-exclusive and subject to market fluctuations [16][19]. Distribution and Channel Management - A significant portion of Suplay's revenue (74.1% to 81.8%) comes from distributor channels, which the company admits to having limited control over [22]. - The company does not own any production facilities, relying entirely on third-party manufacturers, which raises concerns about quality control and adherence to specifications [22]. - Suplay's business model includes products with "blind box" mechanisms, which are under regulatory scrutiny, adding another layer of risk to its operations [24].