金价飙升带不动产量，全球金矿产能已达极限？

Core Insights - Global gold mining production has remained stable in recent years, with annual production changes averaging nearly zero from 2018 to 2024, despite short-term disruptions such as the pandemic and labor movements [1][9] - In 2024, global gold production is projected to reach 3,645 tons, a slight increase of 4 tons from the previous year, marking the second-highest annual output after 2018 [1] - The World Gold Council (WGC) analysts suggest that global gold production may reach a historical high in 2025, driven by rising profit margins for mining companies, new project launches, capacity expansions in various regions, and increased output from artisanal and small-scale mining (ASGM) [3] Production Trends - The profit margins of gold mining companies have been rising significantly, which may encourage the development of new mining projects and the reopening of previously closed mines [5] - Despite some projects being paused in 2025, the contribution from newly launched mines in regions like Russia could still boost overall production [5] - Metals Focus predicts that global gold production is likely to enter a plateau phase rather than a decline, supported by new project launches and capacity ramp-ups, although factors like declining reserves and high capital expenditure will limit growth potential [5][18] Stability Factors - The stability of global gold production is attributed to the geographical distribution of mining activities across continents, which helps maintain output despite various disruptions [12] - The long construction cycles of mining projects make it difficult for companies to quickly adjust production levels, and the discovery of new large-scale mines is decreasing [12][15] - The response of gold production to price increases typically has a lag effect of at least six years, as capital expenditures by mining companies tend to rise in the same year as price increases, but production does not immediately follow suit [15][18] Demand and Market Resilience - Gold's dual nature as both a consumer and investment product ensures that demand remains relatively stable, contributing to the resilience and balance of the global gold market [18]