邓正红能源软实力：过剩预期施压油价 市场供需平衡预见转向规则稳定性评估

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent agreement between the U.S. and Venezuela for the import of up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan oil, which is expected to increase the sales of Venezuelan oil and impact global oil prices negatively [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices fell following the announcement of the U.S.-Venezuela oil import agreement, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $55.99 per barrel, down 2.00%, and Brent crude at $59.96 per barrel, down 1.22% [1]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels, providing some price support, while gasoline inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels, exceeding analyst expectations [1][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Forecast - Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the oil market may experience a surplus of 3 million barrels per day by the first half of 2026 due to weak demand growth and increased supply from OPEC and non-OPEC producers [2]. - The market's expectation of increased Venezuelan oil sales reflects sensitivity to the "oversupply" scenario, despite Venezuela's production being less than 1% of global output [4]. Group 3: U.S. Regulatory Influence - The U.S. government has begun to control the sales of Venezuelan oil, with proceeds deposited into U.S. controlled accounts, indicating a strategy to reshape global oil trade through sanctions and regulatory frameworks [2][5]. - The U.S. has also seized a Russian-flagged tanker for violating sanctions, highlighting its commitment to enforcing its regulatory measures in the oil market [2][5]. Group 4: Venezuelan Oil Production Challenges - Venezuela, despite having the largest oil reserves globally, faces significant production challenges due to long-term U.S. sanctions, leading to technological degradation and talent loss [6]. - The agreement for oil sales further diminishes Venezuela's autonomy over its resources, as the U.S. controls the revenue from these sales [6]. Group 5: Future of Energy Soft Power - The article emphasizes that the future of energy competition will focus on regulatory power rather than mere resource availability, suggesting that institutional trust and rule design will be critical for attracting investment [8]. - The dynamics of the oil market are shifting from "who has oil" to "who sets the rules," indicating a fundamental change in how energy soft power is perceived and valued [8].