美国12月小非农数据温和复苏，但职位空缺率续降，PMI数据制造和服务呈两重天趋势，对此你怎么看？

Employment Market - The US private sector added 41,000 jobs in December, reversing a decline of 29,000 jobs in November, indicating a slight recovery in the labor market [1] - Job growth is heavily concentrated in the service sector, with education and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs and leisure and hospitality adding 24,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector lost 3,000 jobs, including a net loss of 5,000 jobs in manufacturing [2] - There is a significant regional and enterprise size disparity, with robust job growth in the South and Northeast, while the West saw a reduction of 61,000 jobs, and large enterprises are nearly halting recruitment, relying heavily on small and medium enterprises for job growth [2] Job Openings and Labor Market Dynamics - The number of job openings in the US fell to 7.146 million in November, the lowest level since September 2024, and significantly below the market expectation of 7.6 million, reflecting weakened hiring intentions among employers [4] - The current labor market is characterized by "low hiring, low layoffs," indicating a decline in growth momentum, similar to a "stagflation" scenario in the US economy [4] - Wage growth is slowing, with annual salary increases for retained employees stabilizing at 4.4%, while the increase for job switchers rose slightly to 6.6%, but remains below mid-year highs, indicating a soft landing for wages and reduced inflation rebound risks [4] PMI Trends - The divergence between the ISM manufacturing and services PMI highlights structural imbalances in the US economy, with the services PMI rising to 54.4, the highest since October 2024, driven by resilient consumer spending and eased financial conditions [6] - Conversely, the manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December, the lowest since October 2024, remaining below the 50 mark, indicating contraction [6] - The persistent weakness in manufacturing is attributed to three main pressures: slowing global demand, ongoing inventory destocking, and increased tariffs raising production costs [8] Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The moderate recovery in the US employment market has avoided recession risks, with strong service sector performance supporting economic resilience, while easing inflation pressures provide room for policy adjustments [12] - However, declining job vacancy rates, manufacturing contraction, and economic structural disparities suggest that the recovery foundation is not solid [12] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will face challenges in precise adjustments, with market expectations pointing to potential rate cuts in the second quarter of 2026, contingent on continued weak non-farm data [12] Economic Disparities - The K-shaped economic recovery is becoming more pronounced, with high-income groups benefiting from financial market recovery and service sector growth, while low- and middle-income households face pressures from housing and healthcare costs [14] - This disparity undermines the inclusivity of the economic recovery and may further suppress sustained consumer market growth, leading to potential financial crises if consumption stalls [14]