高盛：料今年MSCI中国指数升两成 料南向资金净流入达2,000亿美元

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index to rise by 20% and 12% respectively this year, with "overweight" ratings on A-shares and H-shares [1] - The anticipated market gains will be driven entirely by earnings growth, projected to accelerate from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027, supported by AI, "going out" strategies, and anti-involution policies [1] - The current market valuation is deemed reasonable, with potential upside from AI monetization, policy stimulus, and liquidity exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of southbound funds is predicted to reach $200 billion (approximately 1.558 trillion HKD), setting a new historical high compared to 1.4 trillion HKD in 2025 [1] - Domestic asset reallocation may accelerate, potentially bringing an incremental capital of about 3 trillion RMB to the stock market [1] - Total dividends and share buybacks this year may approach 4 trillion RMB, while foreign long-term investors might reduce their selling of Chinese stocks, indicating a potential buying scale of about $10 billion (approximately 79 billion HKD) [1] Group 3 - Retail investors in mainland China are still far from optimal efficiency, with real estate and cash comprising 54% and 28% of their asset allocation, while stocks only account for 11% [2] - The decline in real interest rates and high expected returns from stocks may drive significant funds from cash into the stock market [2] - Continuous disposable income and financial capital growth suggest over 14 trillion RMB of "new funds" will seek investment opportunities annually [2] Group 4 - The firm remains optimistic about the AI theme, upgrading the hardware sector rating to "overweight," aligning it with the internet sector [2] - In the consumer sector, preference is given to services over goods, with a focus on the materials industry, while maintaining an "overweight" rating on the insurance sector [2]