房地产市场关键信号！多机构预测2026年将迎来底部企稳

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate industry is expected to stabilize at the bottom in 2026, supported by policy initiatives and improved supply-demand relationships [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in transaction volume, with estimated sales in 2025 returning to levels seen in 2009, with a total transaction area of approximately 8.9 billion square meters and a transaction value of about 8.4 trillion yuan [3]. - The real estate sector remains a crucial pillar of economic development, as indicated by its contribution to GDP and housing sales figures [3]. - The annual transaction volume for new and second-hand homes is projected to stabilize between 8-9 billion square meters over the next 10-20 years, transitioning to a market dominated by existing transactions [3]. Group 2: Sales and Pricing Trends - In 2025, new home sales are expected to slightly decline, with Shanghai and Chengdu leading in transaction area and value, while the average price of new homes remains stable compared to the previous year [4]. - The second-hand housing market in 30 key cities is projected to reach a record high of approximately 2.14 billion square meters in transaction area [4]. - The land market shows significant differentiation, with major transactions concentrated in 60 core cities, particularly in Chongqing and Shanghai, where land transaction area and value have increased significantly [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Signals - Inventory pressure in the housing market is expected to ease, with short-term inventory growth halting and long-term inventory stabilizing [5]. - Effective inventory of commercial housing is estimated at around 5 billion square meters, which is considered a healthy level relative to annual sales [5]. - Signs of a reversal in the second-hand housing market are emerging, with declining new listings and rental yields exceeding 3% in some core city areas [6]. Group 4: Determinants for Market Stability - Four key factors are identified as necessary for confirming the bottoming of the housing market: policy certainty, price certainty, product certainty, and supply certainty [6].