Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that J&T Express-W (01519) exceeded expectations in Q4, leading to a 2-3% upward revision of non-IFRS profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 and a slight target price increase to HKD 12.8, maintaining a "Buy" rating for 2026 as the industry favorite [1] - J&T Express recorded strong parcel volume growth in Q4, particularly in Southeast Asia and new markets, with average daily parcel volume in Southeast Asia reaching 26.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%, and new market parcel volume growing by 79.7% to 1.45 million daily, both exceeding expectations [1] - The strong growth in the Southeast Asian market is attributed to increased e-commerce penetration and ongoing capacity expansion by the company, including the addition of 1,000 service points and three new automated sorting systems, which are expected to support a target of 5-10% annual unit cost reduction [1] Group 2 - Despite the overall slowdown in the Chinese market, J&T Express maintained profitability by focusing on high-value business and reverse logistics [2] - Core clients such as Temu, SHEIN, and TikTok continue to drive order growth, while the expanding demand from Mercado Libre injects new momentum into new markets [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, it is projected that parcel volumes in Southeast Asia and new markets will grow by 43% and 49%, respectively [2]
美银证券：上调极兔速递-W(01519)目标价至12.8港元 重申其为2026年的行业首选 评级“买入”