金融界7月21日消息，上证指数高开高走，中证华夏AH经济成长指数 (AH经济成长，931378)报6922.01 点。 从中证华夏AH经济成长指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比52.86%、上海证券交易所占比 30.81%、深圳证券交易所占比16.33%、北京证券交易所占比0.00%。 从中证华夏AH经济成长指数持仓样本的行业来看，工业占比20.08%、可选消费占比19.84%、通信服务 占比15.61%、信息技术占比11.42%、主要消费占比9.15%、金融占比8.30%、原材料占比6.14%、医药卫 生占比4.91%、公用事业占比1.69%、能源占比1.68%、房地产占比1.18%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一交易 日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期调整 日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中 剔除。样本股公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。当中证港股通中国 内地企业综合指数样本发生变动时，指数进行相应调整。 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of July 18, 160 stocks reached their 52-week highs, with notable performances from China New Economy Investment (00080), Aoyuan Group Equity (02905), and Zhong An Holdings Group (08462) showing high growth rates of 288.89%, 55.28%, and 50.00% respectively [1][2]. Summary by Category 52-Week High Performers - China New Economy Investment (00080) closed at 0.440, with a peak price of 0.700, achieving a growth rate of 288.89% [2]. - Aoyuan Group Equity (02905) closed at 0.218, with a peak price of 0.250, achieving a growth rate of 55.28% [2]. - Zhong An Holdings Group (08462) closed at 0.221, with a peak price of 0.228, achieving a growth rate of 50.00% [2]. - Other notable performers include Hualian International (00969) with a growth rate of 40.13% and Zhongke Bio (01237) with a growth rate of 37.25% [2]. Additional High Performers - Wanma Holdings (06928) closed at 0.550 with a growth rate of 30.43% [2]. - Lepu Biopharma-B (02157) closed at 7.940 with a growth rate of 24.54% [2]. - Other stocks with significant growth include ZhiJianYueDong (06860) at 17.14% and China Jindian Group (08281) at 17.12% [2]. 52-Week Low Performers - The document also lists stocks that reached their 52-week lows, with XI Ernan CO-U (09311) showing a decline of 16.10% [6]. - Other notable declines include XI Ernan CO (07311) at -12.62% and Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) at -5.70% [6].

机构：国海证券 研究员：祝玉波 投资要点: 东南亚电商需求红利释放+公司价格策略见效，公司2025Q2 业务量同比增速环比提升 量方面，得益于东南亚市场电商平台需求红利以及自身价格策略，极兔速递在东南亚市场业务量增长加 速，2025Q2 公司实现业务量16.9 亿票，同比+65.9%（2025Q1 同比+50.0%），预计2025H1公司东南亚 快递市占率有望进一步提升（2024 年市占率为28.6%）；此外公司在中国市场及新市场均实现稳健增 长，2025Q2 分别实现56.1/0.9 亿票，同比分别+14.7%/+23.7%。最终极兔速递2025H1在东南亚/中国/新 市场分别完成32.3/106.0/1.7 亿票，同比分别+57.9%/+20.0%/+21.7%。 价方面，2024H2，公司在东南亚市场单票收入降幅较大，主要系公司在快速降本的过程中，实行了较 为激进的价格政策，保证了业务量的持续高速增长，我们预计2025H1 公司或继续维持这一价格策略， 以获得更多市占率。 持续资本投入+规模效应发挥，三市场降本均有望延续成本方面，公司持续推进降本增效，加大机器设 备及车辆投入，截至2025H1，公司在东 ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - The report highlights that Guoquan (锅圈) is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 180-210 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 111%-146% compared to 85.5 million yuan in H1 2024 [4] - The core operating profit for Guoquan is projected to be around 180-210 million yuan, up approximately 44%-68% from 125 million yuan in the same period last year, driven by revenue growth and operational efficiency improvements [4] - Guoquan continues to implement its community central kitchen strategy, expanding its instant retail store network and enhancing store operational efficiency through a multi-channel approach [4] Group 2: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - Jitu Express (极兔速递) has seen a significant increase in business volume, achieving 1.69 billion parcels in Q2 2025, a year-on-year growth of 65.9%, benefiting from the e-commerce demand in Southeast Asia and effective pricing strategies [8][9] - The company is expected to maintain its aggressive pricing strategy to capture more market share, with a projected revenue growth of 16% to 149.94 billion yuan by 2027 [11] - The report indicates that the demand for AI chips in China is anticipated to reach approximately 50 billion USD in the next two to three years, with Nvidia's H20 chip resuming supply in China potentially boosting its market presence [14][18] Group 3: Collaborations and Partnerships - Shengqu Games (盛趣游戏) has entered into a deep cooperation agreement with Tianqiong Interactive to explore the multi-dimensional value of the "Legend" IP, which is expected to enhance the ecosystem of these classic IPs in the mobile and film sectors [22] - The partnership allows Tianqiong Interactive exclusive rights to various derivative products related to the "Legend" and "Legend World" games, while Shengqu Games will focus on developing official products to improve user experience [22] Group 4: Policy and Urban Development Insights - The report discusses the central urban work conference held in July 2025, emphasizing the need for cities to transition from large-scale expansion to improving existing urban quality, aligning with the "People's City" concept [24][25] - It outlines the importance of innovation, livability, environmental sustainability, resilience, and cultural preservation in building "good cities" that meet the aspirations of the people [25][29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the release of e-commerce demand in Southeast Asia and effective pricing strategies, leading to accelerated business volume growth [2][5]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a business volume of 1.69 billion parcels, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.9%, up from 50.0% in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company is projected to continue its aggressive pricing strategy to gain market share, despite a significant drop in revenue per parcel in H2 2024 [3]. Business Volume Growth - The company’s business volume in Southeast Asia is expected to increase, with a projected market share rise from 28.6% in 2024 [2]. - In H1 2025, the company completed 3.23 billion parcels in Southeast Asia, 1.06 billion in China, and 17 million in new markets, with year-on-year growth rates of 57.9%, 20.0%, and 21.7% respectively [2]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements through increased capital investment in machinery and vehicles, with a total of 5,400 operational trucks in Southeast Asia as of H1 2025, an increase of 1,600 trucks year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from economies of scale and refined management practices, which will help maintain cost reductions across its three markets [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to reach $11.85 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 16% [12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be $368 million in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 266% [13]. - The report estimates a target price of HKD 15.2 based on a 30x PE for the Southeast Asia market and a 10x PE for the China market [13].

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express has shown significant growth in parcel volume across various regions, driven by the expansion of e-commerce platforms, leading to an optimistic outlook for market share and profitability [1][2][3] Group 1: Operational Data - In Q2, J&T Express reported a parcel volume increase of 65.9% year-on-year in Southeast Asia, reaching 1.69 billion parcels, and a 14.7% increase in China, totaling 5.61 billion parcels [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total parcel volume increased by 27.0% year-on-year to 14 billion parcels, with Southeast Asia, China, and new markets growing by 57.9%, 20.0%, and 21.7% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is projected to grow from $189.8 billion in 2023 to $373.6 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [1] - J&T Express has maintained its position as the largest express delivery company in Southeast Asia since 2021, with a market share of 28.6% in 2024, expected to rise to 30% in 2025 [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, increasing net profit estimates by 5% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 3% for 2027, resulting in projected net profits of $360 million, $690 million, and $900 million respectively [3] - The target price for J&T Express has been raised by 44% to HKD 10.8, reflecting a higher price-to-earnings ratio due to the company's superior growth prospects compared to industry averages [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong growth in global package volume, driven by significant performance in the Southeast Asian market and stable growth in China, leading to a maintained buy rating. Group 1: Operational Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's global package volume reached 7.39 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [1] - The Southeast Asian market showed robust growth, with package volume increasing by 65.9% to 1.69 billion pieces, achieving a record high growth rate since its listing [1] - The Chinese market maintained steady growth, with package volume reaching 5.61 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [1] - New market package volume increased by 23.7% to 8.94 million pieces [1] Group 2: Efficiency and Automation - The company enhanced its operational efficiency through structural adjustments, adding 700 new outlets in Southeast Asia and reducing 300 outlets in China to focus on a "smaller but more efficient" model [2] - The number of mainline vehicles in Southeast Asia increased by 800 to accommodate rapid package volume growth [2] - In China, while the number of third-party vehicles decreased by 600, the number of automated sorting lines increased by 44 to 270, highlighting the company's strategy of "technology-driven efficiency" [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Southeast Asian e-commerce boom is expected to continue supporting the company's growth, aided by strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms like Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop [3] - During a promotional event on June 6, 2025, Southeast Asia's cross-border e-commerce GMV surged by 123%, with order volume and active product counts also showing significant increases [3] - The Chinese market is anticipated to see a release in profit margins due to efficiency optimization and government policies aimed at reducing "involution" in competition [3] - The company projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.728 billion, 4.485 billion, and 6.341 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 240.1%, 64.4%, and 41.4% respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.30, 0.50, and 0.71 yuan per share [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [3][5]. Core Views - The report highlights strong performance in the Southeast Asian market, with a year-on-year package volume growth of 65.9% to 1.69 billion packages in Q2 2025. The total global package volume reached 7.39 billion, reflecting a 23.5% increase year-on-year [3][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the e-commerce boom in Southeast Asia and operational efficiency improvements in China, which may enhance profitability under the "anti-involution" policy [5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total package volume of 7.39 billion in Q2 2025, with a 23.5% year-on-year growth. The Southeast Asian market contributed significantly with a 65.9% increase, while the Chinese market saw a 14.7% growth [3][8]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.728 billion, 4.485 billion, and 6.341 billion RMB, representing growth rates of 240.1%, 64.4%, and 41.4% respectively [5][7]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the Southeast Asian e-commerce sector, supported by strategic partnerships with major platforms like Shopee and Lazada. The company is positioned to capitalize on this growth, maintaining its market leadership [8]. - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to ease price competition, allowing for improved profitability in domestic operations as the company optimizes its efficiency [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.30, 0.50, and 0.71 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 29.7, 18.1, and 12.8 [5][7]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 63.056 billion RMB in 2023 to 109.376 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13% [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express has reported significant growth in its operational data for Q2, particularly in Southeast Asia, where parcel volume increased by 66% year-on-year, indicating strong market performance and potential for continued expansion [1][2][3] Group 1: J&T Express Operational Performance - In Q2, the total average daily parcel volume for the group reached 81.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with Southeast Asia contributing 18.5 million parcels daily, reflecting a 66% growth [1] - For the first half of the year, the group's average daily total parcel volume was 76.9 million, up 26% year-on-year, with Southeast Asia showing a 57% increase [1] - The company’s parcel volume in China grew by 14.7% in Q2, reaching an average of 61.7 million parcels daily [1] Group 2: Southeast Asia E-commerce Growth - According to Momentum Works, the total GMV for Southeast Asian e-commerce platforms is projected to reach $128.4 billion by 2024, dominated by Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop [1] - TikTok Shop's GMV in Southeast Asia is expected to grow from $163 million in 2023 to $226 million in 2024, increasing its market share from 13.2% to 17.6% [2] - During a recent promotional event, TikTok Shop achieved a GMV growth of 123% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer engagement [2] Group 3: Market Position and Growth of J&T Express - J&T Express has maintained its position as the leading courier operator in Southeast Asia since 2020, with a market share of 28.6% projected for 2024, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from 2023 [2] - The company has experienced substantial growth in parcel volume, with year-on-year increases of 87.3%, 16.3%, and 28.9% from 2021 to 2023, culminating in 3.24 billion parcels in 2023 [3] - In Q1 2025, J&T Express's parcel volume in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by 50%, with Q2 showing an even larger increase of 66% [3] Group 4: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at $3.80 billion, $5.76 billion, and $8.23 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of $4.67 billion, $6.63 billion, and $9.09 billion [4] - The estimated market value for the Southeast Asian segment is projected at $10 billion based on an EBITDA multiple of 11x for 2026 [4] - The total target market value across three markets is estimated at HKD 100.1 billion, with a target price of HKD 11.16, indicating a potential upside of 33% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the rapid expansion of e-commerce in Southeast Asia, with a projected market share increase from 28.6% in 2024 to 30% in 2025 [5][6]. - The Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is forecasted to grow from $189.8 billion in 2023 to $373.6 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [5]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial profit growth, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised upward by 5%, 6%, and 3% respectively, reaching $360.6 million, $690.5 million, and $898.7 million [8]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including cost reductions through scale effects and the ability to integrate logistics across various e-commerce platforms [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: $10,259 million in 2024, $12,484 million in 2025, $14,693 million in 2026, and $16,979 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.93%, 21.69%, 17.70%, and 15.56% respectively [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from $0.01 in 2024 to $0.10 in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 3.61% in 2024 to 20.80% in 2027 [4]. Market Position - The company has established itself as the largest express delivery service provider in Southeast Asia, benefiting from significant market share and cost advantages [5][6]. - The report indicates that the company’s total parcel volume in Southeast Asia increased by 65.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching 1.69 billion parcels [10]. Valuation - The target price for the company's stock has been raised by 44% to HKD 10.80, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.0x for the years 2025-2027, reflecting the company's higher-than-industry growth prospects [8].