澳联储释放“耐心”信号：淡化短期数据波动 高通胀下对利率持谨慎立场

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is adopting a patient and cautious approach towards future interest rate adjustments, focusing on long-term inflation trends rather than reacting to individual data points [1][2] Group 1: Inflation Assessment - RBA's Deputy Governor Andrew Hagger indicated that inflation above 3% is still considered too high, and the bank will wait for the comprehensive quarterly inflation report on January 28 to make a complete assessment of consumer prices [1] - Recent data showed a slowdown in Australia's November inflation, but overall and core inflation rates remain above the RBA's target range of 2%-3% [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Hagger's comments, traders reduced the probability of a rate hike in May from full pricing to 80%, leading to an increase in three-year government bond prices and a decrease in yields [1] - Market interpretation suggests that the RBA's stance has not significantly changed, indicating a longer period of maintaining interest rates rather than an imminent need for rate hikes [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The RBA has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.60% since the last rate cut in August, shifting focus to address new inflation pressures amid a tight labor market and weak productivity growth [1] - Recent monetary policy meeting minutes revealed discussions on conditions that might necessitate a rate hike, but any actions will depend on subsequent data [2] - The RBA acknowledges that the full effects of the 75 basis points of easing implemented from February to August have not yet fully materialized [2]