贵金属继续调整！白银跌超3%、黄金下挫，重要商品指数再平衡今日开启

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a liquidity shock triggered by the rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), leading to significant price declines in gold, silver, and other metals [1][15][17]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - On January 8, the precious metals market saw a collective adjustment, with spot gold dropping to around $4,415, COMEX silver falling over 2%, and spot silver declining more than 3% to a low of $75.58 [1]. - The rebalancing process, which began on January 8 and will continue until January 14, involves a reduction in the weight of gold from 20.4% to 14.9% and silver from 9.6% to 3.94% in the BCOM index [15][18]. Group 2: Market Impact - Deutsche Bank and TD Securities anticipate a surge of $7.7 billion in silver sell orders over the next two weeks, equating to 13% of the total open interest in the COMEX silver market [15]. - The rebalancing is expected to result in futures sell-offs that will account for 9% of total silver positions and 3% of total gold positions [15]. Group 3: Historical Context - The decline in precious metals follows a rare and significant price surge, with gold increasing over 70% and silver rising nearly 150% in 2025, leading to a fragile market environment [17]. - The rebalancing is characterized as a large-scale technical sell-off, with analysts noting that the sell pressure on silver will be the most significant, followed by aluminum and gold [18][19]. Group 4: Future Projections - Estimates suggest that a sale of 2.4 million ounces of gold could lead to a price drop of 2.5% to 3%, depending on the sensitivity model used [19]. - Analysts predict that the upcoming sell orders will lead to a substantial repricing of silver, exacerbated by a liquidity vacuum in the market [20].