特朗普的“核电梦”，很多人不看好

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is pursuing an aggressive nuclear energy expansion plan to ensure the U.S. maintains a competitive edge in the artificial intelligence (AI) race, despite facing skepticism regarding the feasibility of its ambitious goals [1] Group 1: Nuclear Energy Expansion Plans - The administration aims to quadruple the nation's nuclear power capacity by 2050, but faces challenges such as high construction costs, regulatory hurdles, and financial risks perceived by the private sector [1] - A partnership worth $80 billion has been signed with Brookfield and Westinghouse to build eight large nuclear power plants, alongside efforts to restart several decommissioned plants with billions in loans [1][2] Group 2: Market Response and Economic Viability - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have shown initial support by signing long-term power purchase agreements or investing in small modular reactors (SMRs) [2] - However, experts warn that the fundamental economic logic of nuclear power remains unchanged, with costs still higher than other energy sources, leading to concerns about the sustainability of the nuclear revival [2] Group 3: Historical Context and Cost Concerns - Historical data indicates that achieving the proposed capacity increase would require an annual addition of 15 gigawatts (GW) starting in 2030, surpassing previous records [3] - The Vogtle plant's construction delays and cost overruns serve as a cautionary tale, with costs reaching $15,000 per kilowatt, significantly higher than international benchmarks [3] Group 4: Financing and Government Involvement - To address financing challenges, the government is introducing new partnership models, including a deal with Brookfield that involves significant investment from the Japanese government [4] - Analysts question whether data center operators will be willing to underwrite these costly investments without government guarantees, especially amid rising public concern over electricity affordability [4] Group 5: Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and Regulatory Challenges - The administration is also focusing on SMRs to lower initial capital requirements, with several startups receiving substantial venture capital [5] - However, no SMR has yet received operational approval from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), complicating the rollout of this technology [5] Group 6: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - The push to relax regulations has sparked internal backlash within regulatory bodies, with former NRC officials expressing concerns about increased accident risks [6] - Despite ongoing skepticism, some experts believe that current government subsidies and rising energy demands create a unique financing environment for nuclear energy, differing from past attempts at nuclear revival [6]