财政主导风险加大！耶伦警告低利率或让美国沦为“香蕉共和国”！

Core Viewpoint - Janet Yellen warns of increasing risks associated with "fiscal dominance" in the U.S. economy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's independence may be compromised, leading to potential capital flight, currency pressure, and rising long-term interest rates, which could result in the U.S. losing its dollar pricing power and becoming akin to a "banana republic" [1][10] Group 1: Fiscal Dominance Characteristics - Fiscal dominance occurs when fiscal policy overrides traditional boundaries, forcing monetary policy to serve fiscal objectives, which is a dangerous signal for Western economies but less problematic for Eastern models [1][3] - The U.S. is showing clear signs of fiscal dominance, with the government pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate debt burdens, leading to a scenario where monetary policy is subordinated to fiscal needs [3][5] Group 2: Economic Implications of Fiscal Dominance - The formation of fiscal dominance relies on continuous fiscal deficits and debt expansion, which are often pursued without corresponding fiscal consolidation mechanisms, resulting in a growing debt burden [5][10] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that the federal deficit will reach $1.9 trillion by 2026, with total debt as a percentage of GDP rising to 100%, and potentially 118% over the next decade, which is a key driver forcing monetary policy to yield [3][5] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Inflation Risks - When central banks are compelled to finance fiscal deficits, it leads to increased money supply, which may mask inflation pressures in the short term but can result in long-term inflation spikes due to excessive money supply [7][8] - Yellen's warnings highlight the risk of rising inflation expectations as the Federal Reserve neglects its core responsibility to control inflation, with the IMF predicting global inflation to remain high at 4.2% in 2026, with the U.S. facing even greater inflation risks due to fiscal stimulus and compromised monetary policy independence [8][10] Group 4: Political Influence on Economic Policy - Fiscal dominance reflects a shift in economic logic driven by political demands, where short-term economic performance and public support take precedence over long-term debt sustainability [9][10] - The current U.S. situation exemplifies this trend, with political interference in monetary policy undermining the professional separation of macroeconomic management and leading to a closed loop of public demand, political action, and policy implementation [9][10]