湘财证券：看多铜、铝价格 维持有色金属行业“增持”评级

Group 1: Core Views on Metals - The company is bullish on copper and aluminum prices, cautiously optimistic on platinum, and neutral to bearish on palladium prices [1] - Copper prices are experiencing upward momentum but are accompanied by short-term adjustments; supply is increasing but at a declining growth rate, while demand is stable despite some concerns [2] - Aluminum prices are also rising, supported by tight supply conditions, with demand growth in the automotive sector remaining stable, although new energy vehicle growth is slowing [3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - For copper, the company suggests focusing on leading upstream enterprises with copper mines and ongoing acquisitions, as copper pricing has not yet peaked [1][2] - In the aluminum sector, attention should be on the electrolytic aluminum segment, while for platinum, the focus should be on domestic platinum recycling leaders [1][3] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating on the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - The global supply-demand balance for platinum is tight, with strong demand from the automotive sector, but new energy vehicle growth is slowing, leading to a cautious outlook [4] - Palladium prices are under pressure due to weak demand from the gasoline vehicle market, with inventory levels rising, indicating a loosening supply-demand balance [5] - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen significant price increases, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 13.68% rise this month and a 65.05% increase over the past six months [8] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The current economic cycle is characterized by a downturn, with potential benefits for certain commodities as the market seeks new global assets amid U.S. economic challenges [6][7] - The company notes that as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, there may be increased capital outflow from the U.S., which could further enhance the valuation of globally priced commodities like gold and copper [7]