数据中心将迎“冷却革命”？瑞银：英伟达技术变革或重塑行业“牌局”

Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that Nvidia's statements at CES regarding next-generation chip cooling technology are prompting investors to reassess potential winners and losers in the evolution of data center infrastructure [1] Group 1: Nvidia's New Cooling Technology - Nvidia's description of the upcoming Vera Rubin platform suggests that some high-performance AI systems may no longer rely on traditional mechanical cooling under specific climate conditions, altering the economics of data center heat dissipation [1] - The latest Nvidia chips can operate at higher temperatures, utilizing warm liquid at approximately 43-46 degrees Celsius for cooling without compromising performance, which can then be cooled naturally based on outdoor conditions rather than relying on energy-intensive mechanical cooling [1] - The key change is in the method of heat dissipation rather than a complete elimination of cooling infrastructure [1] Group 2: Beneficiaries of the New Technology - UBS believes that this technological evolution is beneficial for cooling tower and dry cooler manufacturers, which can achieve heat dissipation without compressors [2] - Vertiv (VRT.US) is highlighted as a potential beneficiary due to its dominance in the dry cooler system market with the DX Thermal product line [2] - The impact on Modine Manufacturing (MOD.US) is viewed as "neutral to slightly positive," as its air-cooled chillers can integrate natural cooling features, reducing reliance on compressors when outdoor conditions permit [2] Group 3: Mechanical Chillers Remain Essential - Despite opinions suggesting that Nvidia's chips could render mechanical chillers obsolete, UBS disagrees, asserting that mechanical chillers will remain a core component of data center design for the foreseeable future [3] - Most data centers operate in a hybrid mode, with only some racks dedicated to AI loads, while broader facilities still require traditional air cooling systems [3] - Many installed chips still need air cooling or lower temperature liquid cooling, both of which depend on water-cooled mechanical chillers [3] - Regional factors are crucial, as Nvidia's warm liquid cooling concept may be significantly limited in hot climates like Texas and Arizona, where outdoor temperatures can approach or exceed liquid loop temperatures, reducing the feasibility of natural cooling [3] Group 4: Impact on Comprehensive HVAC Companies - For comprehensive HVAC and industrial equipment companies like Trane Technologies (TT.US) and Johnson Controls (JCI.US), UBS believes that the industry shift driven by Nvidia will have a "neutral to slightly negative" impact [4] - However, it is emphasized that both companies are still expected to achieve significant growth in the coming years, with Johnson Controls' performance improvement primarily stemming from its own margin enhancement plans rather than solely relying on data center business [4] - Overall, UBS interprets Nvidia's CES statements as a gradual innovation for cooling equipment manufacturers rather than a disruptive shock, indicating a redistribution of demand among different technologies rather than a disappearance of demand [4] - Even as natural cooling solutions play a more significant role in specific applications and climate conditions, mechanical chillers will remain an indispensable part of the data center infrastructure ecosystem [4]