大成基金郭玮羚：AI依然是2026年科技主线 看好光通信、存储和PCB上游等机会

Group 1 - The core investment outlook for the technology sector in the first half of 2026 is expected to continue focusing on AI, with structural opportunities being stronger than overall growth, indicating increased investment difficulty compared to 2025 [1] - The overall market's investment return on AI is anticipated to be more scrutinized in 2026, following a significant rise in 2025, leading to a more optimistic outlook compared to the previous year [1] - In a stable growth environment, structural opportunities in AI investments are expected to outperform total growth, with specific sectors like optical communication, storage, and liquid cooling being highlighted for their potential [1] Group 2 - The optical communication sector is identified as a bottleneck for both training and inference in AI, with expectations for planning to begin in 2026 and potential mass application by 2027 [1] - The current tight pricing cycle in the storage sector is projected to last for 1 to 2 years due to increased demand from AI inference, which will enhance user behavior and preference memory in future models [1] - Domestic storage wafer manufacturers are likely to exceed expectations in capacity expansion, presenting a significant opportunity for domestic semiconductor equipment [2] Group 3 - Liquid cooling suppliers in China are expected to transition from validation to order acquisition and volume production in 2026, although the industry may face long-term price competition [3] - The PCB upstream sector is currently experiencing a material upgrade and price increase cycle, with domestic manufacturers likely to gain market share due to their advanced technology and stronger expansion willingness compared to overseas counterparts [4] - The overall PCB industry is showing good growth, but the difficulty of capacity expansion raises questions about the realization of overseas production capacity, with a trend towards industry decentralization expected by 2026 [4]