2025年汽车以旧换新总量超1150万辆，新能源汽车占比近六成

Core Insights - The "old-for-new" policy for automobiles in China is expected to drive significant growth in the automotive consumption market and industry upgrades, with over 11.5 million vehicles being replaced and related sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025 [2][3] - The policy has led to a substantial increase in the market share of new energy vehicles (NEVs), with NEVs accounting for nearly 60% of vehicles sold through the replacement program [3][4] - The policy has effectively stimulated demand for vehicle upgrades, contributing over 1 percentage point to the overall retail sales growth of consumer goods in 2025 [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" policy has transformed the automotive market, with NEVs achieving a retail market share exceeding 50% for nine consecutive months, peaking at 59.4% in November [3][4] - The policy has created a strong demand for high-quality, green, and smart vehicles, leading to a significant increase in consumer acceptance of NEVs [3][5] - The automotive sector's growth is supported by a robust demand-driven mechanism that encourages manufacturers to innovate and optimize product structures [5][6] Group 2: Environmental and Social Impact - The recycling and resource regeneration aspects of the "old-for-new" policy have led to a significant increase in the recovery of scrapped vehicles, reaching approximately 9.8 million units in 2025, a 24.5% year-on-year increase [7] - The policy has resulted in the recycling of around 960 million tons of steel and 130 million tons of non-ferrous metals, significantly reducing reliance on primary mineral resources and cutting carbon emissions by approximately 24.5 million tons [7][8] - The active second-hand car market, with transactions reaching 39.7 million units from 2024 to 2025, indicates a maturing automotive market and supports resource conservation [8][9] Group 3: Policy Effectiveness and Future Outlook - The "old-for-new" policy has established a positive feedback loop between market demand, policy incentives, and industry upgrades, enhancing China's competitive position in the global NEV supply chain [5][6] - The policy has not only stimulated immediate sales but also fostered long-term competitiveness through technological innovation and cost optimization [6][9] - As the policy framework continues to evolve, it is expected to further enhance the sustainability and vitality of China's automotive industry, positioning it as a leader in the global transition to low-carbon transportation [9][10]