美元疲软前景或将持续，美联储独立性隐忧挥之不去

Core Viewpoint - Forex strategists maintain a bearish outlook on the US dollar heading into 2026, driven by concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and expectations of interest rate cuts, predicting a slight depreciation of the dollar by year-end [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance and Predictions - The dollar fell nearly 10% against a basket of major currencies last year, marking its weakest performance since 2017 [1] - A Reuters survey indicates that the mainstream view among forex forecasters remains unchanged, with expectations for the euro to rise approximately 1% each quarter, reaching 1.19 against the dollar by mid-year and 1.20 by year-end [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Concerns about the labor market's weakness have led the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate three times since September, currently targeting a range of 3.50%-3.75%, with one more rate cut anticipated this year [5] - The Fed has signaled a pause in rate cuts to assess subsequent data, highlighting divisions among officials regarding inflation and employment concerns [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Nearly 90% of currency traders surveyed expect to maintain or increase their net short positions on the dollar by the end of January [6] - The interest rate futures market reflects expectations for at least two rate cuts by the Fed this year, with potential for further easing if political influences affect policy decisions [7]