“国产大模型第一股”智谱上市首日险涨：模型迭代×生态飞轮有望跑通增长？

Core Viewpoint - Zhiyuan AI has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first "domestic large model stock," reflecting strong investor interest in AI companies despite short-term profitability pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhiyuan AI, established in 2019 from Tsinghua University's Computer Science Department, is the largest independent general model developer in China, focusing on achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [3]. - The company has developed a comprehensive model matrix that includes language, vision, code, and agents, showcasing its capability from foundational algorithms to full-stack independent research and development [3]. Group 2: Business Model - Zhiyuan AI's business model features a "dual-drive" approach: high-margin localized deployments provide stable cash flow, while cloud-based API services offer future growth potential [4]. - Localized deployments, aimed at data-sensitive government and enterprise clients, are projected to have a gross margin of 59% by mid-2025, contributing approximately 85% of the company's revenue [4]. Group 3: Cloud Business Potential - The cloud business is seen as a key variable for long-term value, with a shift from localized to cloud services expected as model iterations accelerate [5]. - Cloud revenue share has rapidly increased from a low base in 2022 to 15.2% by mid-2025, with daily token consumption reaching 4.2 trillion by November 2025 [5]. Group 4: Technological Differentiation - Zhiyuan AI utilizes its self-developed GLM (General Language Model) architecture, which offers unique advantages in long text understanding, logical reasoning, and low hallucination rates [6]. - The flagship model GLM-4.7, set to release in December 2025, introduces innovative mechanisms that enhance performance in programming and complex task planning [6]. Group 5: Ecosystem Development - The company has built an "ecosystem flywheel" through a strategy of open-source and commercialization, attracting global developers and converting traffic into commercial orders [8]. - As of mid-2025, over 2.7 million developers are registered on the MaaS platform, with open-source model downloads exceeding 45 million [8]. Group 6: Financial Performance - Zhiyuan AI reported a revenue of 1.91 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.03%, but also incurred a net loss of 2.351 billion RMB due to increased costs in computing services and R&D [9][11]. - The cost structure indicates that computing service fees have become the second-largest expense after labor costs, accounting for 19% of total costs in the first half of 2025 [11]. Group 7: Valuation Insights - The market tends to use the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio for valuation, with an expected PS of approximately 30 times for 2026 based on the IPO pricing [11]. - Despite a higher valuation compared to some peers, the scarcity of pure large model stocks and the explosive potential of cloud business justify this valuation, with expectations for rapid revenue growth leading to compression of valuation multiples [11].