指数权重调整，金银或许引发“大地震”

Group 1 - Bloomberg Commodity Index (BOCM) will undergo rebalancing from January 9 to January 15, with adjustments in commodity weightings [1] - The index includes six major categories: energy, industrial metals, precious metals, grains, livestock, and soft commodities, with a maximum single commodity weight of 15% [1] - Gold's weight will decrease from 20.4% to 14.9%, while silver's weight will drop from 9.6% to 3.94%, leading to significant sell-offs in both metals [1] Group 2 - An estimated $7.7 billion in sell orders for silver and $6 to $7 billion for gold are expected due to the rebalancing, based on the current and target weights [1] - The sell-off is attributed to the need for tracking funds to adjust their positions in response to the index changes, potentially leading to market panic [1] - The impact on gold and silver prices may result in significant adjustments in the coming weeks, with the effects expected to dissipate after the new weights are implemented on January 15 [1] Group 3 - Current gold prices are influenced by risk events, with a recent upward trend characterized by a lack of strong momentum, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces [2] - The key resistance level for gold is identified at $4,480, with potential downward movement expected if this level is breached [4] - The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with traders cautious about entering positions ahead of the index weight adjustments [4] Group 4 - The strategy suggested is to follow the downward trend, using $4,480 as a stop-loss level, with targets set for $4,430 and potentially $4,410 to $4,406 [5] - A significant correction is deemed necessary to pave the way for a bull market in 2026, emphasizing the cyclical nature of market trends [5]