3 6 Ke·2026-01-08 08:10Core Viewpoint - The new National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance Drug Catalog will be implemented on January 1, 2026, leading to price reductions for several drugs, including long-acting growth hormone products from Jinsai Pharmaceutical and Tebao Biological [1][6]. Group 1: Market Impact - The inclusion of long-acting growth hormones in the national medical insurance will fundamentally change the market dynamics by significantly lowering annual treatment costs, thus releasing previously suppressed demand [7][18]. - The annual treatment cost for a child weighing 30 kg will drop to around 30,000 yuan after the inclusion of long-acting growth hormones in the insurance [6][10]. - The domestic growth hormone market size has grown from 4 billion yuan in 2018 to 11.6 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.9%, expected to reach 28.6 billion yuan by 2030 [14]. Group 2: Product Competition - Jinsai Pharmaceutical's Jinsai Growth Hormone and Tebao Biological's Yipeisheng are the only two long-acting products included in the new insurance catalog, leading to direct competition [20][21]. - Jinsai Growth Hormone's price has reportedly dropped to approximately 900 yuan per 9 mg after negotiations, a reduction of about 75% from its previous price of 3,500 yuan [6][10]. - Tebao Biological's Yipeisheng has seen a price reduction of about 53%, with new insurance payment prices ranging from 418.11 yuan to 853.20 yuan [5][6]. Group 3: Future Trends - The long-acting growth hormone market is expected to capture 73.8% of the overall growth hormone market by 2030, while short-acting products are projected to decline [17]. - The market penetration of long-acting growth hormones is anticipated to increase significantly due to their improved patient compliance and lower injection frequency [10][18]. - New entrants, such as Novo Nordisk and Weisheng Pharmaceutical, are expected to face challenges in gaining market share due to the already low pricing established by Jinsai Growth Hormone [23][24].