2025年上海大宗交易成交金额97%被内资包揽

Core Insights - The Shanghai bulk trading market has experienced a continuous decline in transaction value for four consecutive years, with a reported total of 424 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 40% [1] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a further decline, with only 67 billion yuan in transactions, marking a 63% year-on-year drop and a 57% quarter-on-quarter decrease [1] Market Performance - The average transaction price in the Shanghai bulk market fell to approximately 5.6 billion yuan, with the fourth quarter dropping to 4.8 billion yuan [1] - More than 50% of transactions in 2025 were below 3 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards lower-value deals [1] Property Type Analysis - Office and research office properties remained the most popular, accounting for 185 billion yuan or 43.6% of the total market [2] - The commercial sector held a 16.6% transaction share, slightly higher than the apartment and residential sectors at 16.5% [2] - The hotel sector accounted for 5% of transactions, with notable deals including the "zero-dollar acquisition" of the Andaz Hotel in Shanghai [2][3] Buyer Composition - Domestic buyers dominated the market, accounting for 97% of transaction value, while foreign buyers completed only three acquisitions but sold assets totaling approximately 129 billion yuan [3] - Self-use buyers emerged as a significant market force, contributing around 60 billion yuan or 26% of total transactions, primarily from sectors like finance, TMT, and consumer [7] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The market is witnessing an increase in judicial auction transactions, which accounted for a quarter of total deals, reflecting underlying debt pressures on certain assets [7] - There are currently 140 billion yuan in bulk transactions at the draft stage, expected to close in the first half of 2026, with a focus on stable, smaller-scale transactions [8] - The expansion of public REITs in sectors like hotels and quality office spaces is anticipated to enhance exit and revitalization channels for existing assets in 2026 [8]