2026仅1家目标销量翻倍，车企不再“放卫星”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, is transitioning from rapid growth to a more cautious approach, with manufacturers setting more conservative sales targets for 2026 compared to previous years [1] Group 1: Sales Targets and Growth Rates - Geely has set the highest sales target for 2026 at 3.45 million units, representing a 14% increase from 2025, with a goal of 2.22 million units in NEV sales, a 32% year-on-year growth [3] - Dongfeng aims for a total sales target of 3.25 million units in 2026, with an estimated growth rate exceeding 30% based on projected 2025 sales of approximately 2.5 million units [3] - Chery has announced a target of 3.2 million units for 2026, reflecting a 14.03% increase from 2025 [3] - Leap Motor is the only manufacturer aiming for a doubling of sales, targeting 1 million units in 2026, up from 500,000 units in 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Performance and Adjustments - Longhua's 2025 cumulative sales were 1.32 million units, with a significant adjustment in their 2026 target from at least 2.49 million units down to 1.8 million units, indicating a 36% growth from the previous year [4] - NIO has set a sales target for 2026 between 456,000 and 489,000 units, aiming for a growth rate of 40-50% from the previous year [6] - Xiaomi has also set a target for 2026 that exceeds a 30% increase from its previous year's sales, with plans to launch a new generation of vehicles [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The implementation of a 50% reduction in NEV purchase tax and adjustments to subsidy policies are creating new variables in the domestic automotive market [1] - Traditional automakers are adopting more cautious growth targets, while new entrants remain optimistic but have tempered their previous aggressive growth statements [1]