连阳后A500胜率亮眼，机构跑步进场释放乐观信号

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has recently experienced a rare "fifteen consecutive days of gains" trend, prompting an analysis of the relative performance and future prospects of the CSI A500 index in this context [1]. Historical Review of "Eight Consecutive Days of Gains" - The occurrence of "eight consecutive days of gains" in the A-share market is infrequent. Since 2005, there have been 24 effective "eight consecutive days" periods, during which major broad-based indices achieved significant positive returns [2]. - On average, during these periods, the CSI A500 index recorded a return of approximately 10.39%, slightly higher than the Shanghai Composite Index's 9.45% and the CSI 300's 10.36%, but slightly lower than the CSI 800's 10.45%. The CSI A500 outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in 17 out of 24 instances, yielding a win rate of about 70.8% [4]. Future Performance After "Eight Consecutive Days" - Following the "eight consecutive days," the CSI A500 index shows a pattern of performance. The probability of achieving positive returns and outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index is noteworthy [5]. - The CSI A500 index has an approximately 83.33% probability of positive returns one week after the last day of the "eight consecutive days," which is on par with the CSI 300 and CSI 800, and better than the Shanghai Composite Index. The one-month win rate is 75.00%, the highest among the indices analyzed [6]. - Over longer time frames, the win rate decreases, with a 50.00% probability of positive returns after three and six months, indicating a potential market reversal [6]. Relative Outperformance of CSI A500 - The CSI A500 index demonstrates excess return potential relative to the Shanghai Composite Index after an "eight consecutive days" rally. The probability of outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index is about 69.57% one week later, increasing to 86.96% after three months [7]. Recent Fund Flows - Recent fund flows indicate a significant increase in institutional interest in the CSI A500 index. As of December 29, 2025, ETFs tracking the CSI A500 saw a net inflow of over 80 billion yuan, with the leading A500 ETF from E Fund reaching a scale of 33.71 billion yuan [8]. - This substantial inflow reflects institutional investors' recognition of the CSI A500 index's current allocation value, driven by its balanced industry representation and low management fees [8]. Policy Environment - The long-term performance of the market is supported by macroeconomic and policy environments. Recent statements from regulatory authorities outline a framework for the healthy development of the capital market, focusing on risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development [9]. - The CSI A500 index, composed of representative companies across various industries, is closely linked to the quality of listed companies and macroeconomic policies. Support for technology innovation and advanced manufacturing is expected to benefit many constituent companies within the index [9].