Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-08 08:32Market Overview - On January 8, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing volatility. The metals sector, including gold, silver, and copper, collectively retreated, with the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) declining by 1.89%, marking its first pullback after five consecutive gains. The fund saw a net inflow of over 1.2 billion yuan, totaling more than 4.7 billion yuan in net subscriptions over the past five days [1][6]. Gold Reserves and Central Bank Actions - As of December 31, 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month, with a total annual increase of 860,000 ounces. The central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [2]. - Globally, central banks have been accumulating gold, with the U.S. overseas gold reserves exceeding 900 million troy ounces, valued at approximately $3.93 trillion, surpassing the value of foreign-held U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996 [3]. Commodity Trading Trends - According to Zhejiang Merchants Securities, the current macroeconomic environment in developed economies is at a critical risk point, with geopolitical tensions leading to two main trading themes: the replacement of reserve assets and the national security focus on basic and rare metals. Central banks are expected to continue increasing gold reserves, which will support long-term gold price trends [4]. - The demand for strategic metals is expected to rise due to increased military spending and the need for key materials, with policies in the U.S. and European allies aimed at boosting strategic metal reserves by 2025 [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, with potential strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and political instability affecting the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador. Despite traditional consumption slowing in China, demand from AI and energy storage sectors is anticipated to drive copper consumption growth [5]. - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) includes a diverse range of metals, with a high concentration of copper (34%) and gold (12%), making it a strategic investment option in the context of the ongoing commodity supercycle [7][9]. Performance Metrics - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) has shown a cumulative return that leads its peers, with a maximum drawdown lower than that of similar funds. The index's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 26.27, a 52% decrease compared to five years ago, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its earnings growth [11].