宏观纵览 | 央行2026年政策定调，降准降息可期

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has outlined seven key priorities for 2026, focusing on monetary policy implementation, financial services for the real economy, risk prevention, and financial reform and opening-up [3] - The monetary policy for 2026 will be moderately accommodative, aiming to promote high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [4][5] - The PBOC aims to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level while preventing excessive fluctuations, with a supportive external environment expected for the RMB's moderate appreciation in 2026 [6][7] Group 2 - The PBOC's accommodative monetary policy will have two main directions: total policy and structural policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample and financing conditions are relatively loose [4] - Structural policies will focus on targeted support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, with an increase in the overall quota of structural monetary policy tools [5] - The PBOC is exploring mechanisms to provide liquidity support to non-bank financial institutions in specific scenarios to mitigate financial risks, reflecting a proactive approach to financial stability [8][9][10]