疯涨之后遇“急刹车”，2026年“银牛”还能继续吗

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced extreme volatility, with significant price drops following a period of rapid increases, raising concerns about future trends and risk management strategies for investors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Silver prices surged dramatically in 2025, with a maximum increase of 196% over the year, reaching a peak of $83.971 per ounce by December 29, 2025 [3]. - In early 2026, silver prices faced a sharp decline, with both spot and COMEX silver dropping over 5% on January 7, and further declines of more than 2% on January 8 [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility is attributed to high leverage and speculative trading, with market sensitivity to changes in the dollar, Federal Reserve expectations, geopolitical risks, and industrial demand [4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage market volatility, including adjustments to trading limits and margin requirements starting January 9, 2026 [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the silver market may experience a wide range of fluctuations rather than a continued bull market, with potential price movements between $60 and $90 per ounce throughout 2026 [4]. - Factors supporting silver prices include a continuous supply gap, growing industrial demand, and geopolitical risks, although previous price increases have already priced in some optimism [4].