多晶硅跌停！短期需求淡季、库存难消...政策博弈回归供需基本面

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in polysilicon futures prices reflects a pessimistic outlook on the supply-demand balance for 2026, driven by market sentiment and reduced trading volumes [3][5][12] Group 1: Market Performance - On the 8th, polysilicon futures fell by 9.00%, closing at 56,024 yuan/ton, a drop of 5,300 yuan from the previous settlement price, with an intraday low of 53,610 yuan/ton [1] - The main contract 2605 also saw a significant decline, dropping over 7% with a minimum price of 54,500 yuan/ton during the day [1] - The trading volume decreased significantly, with a reduction of 4,212 contracts, indicating a notable exit of capital from the market [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The immediate trigger for the market downturn was a revision of policy expectations regarding the establishment of "Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd." which was anticipated to clear 1.7 million tons of capacity but has not yet initiated substantial acquisition actions [5][6] - Current demand signals are weak, with downstream component manufacturers showing limited orders and a significant drop in procurement willingness for polysilicon [7] - Forecasts indicate a potential 17% year-on-year decline in global new photovoltaic installations in 2026, with China's expected new installations dropping by 36% [7][10] Group 3: Inventory and Cost Considerations - As of the end of 2025, polysilicon industry inventory exceeded 350,000 tons, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [12] - The average complete cost for polysilicon production is approximately 48,000 yuan/ton, with the highest costs reaching 56,000 yuan/ton, suggesting that 42,000 yuan/ton may serve as a critical support level [12] - The market is currently navigating between maintaining high prices through alliances among leading companies and the potential for price collapse due to external competition [12] Group 4: Future Outlook - The first two months of 2026 are expected to be a demand lull, with potential price stabilization or further declines depending on market dynamics post-Spring Festival [14] - March is anticipated to be a crucial observation period, where demand may recover, leading to two possible scenarios: a stable high-price environment or further price declines due to new capacity releases [14] - The expected trading range for polysilicon futures in 2026 is projected to be between 42,000 yuan/ton and 80,000 yuan/ton [14]