口子窖交出近年来最差业绩预告：四季度或陷亏损 实控人去年8月套现3.29亿元

Core Viewpoint - Kouzi Jiao has announced a significant reduction in its expected net profit for 2025, forecasting a decline of 50% to 60% compared to the previous year, with potential losses in the fourth quarter [1][2][7] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 662.10 million and 827.60 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit expected to decrease by 49.65% to 59.93% [2][8] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 742.01 million yuan, indicating a potential fourth-quarter loss of between -79.91 million and 85.58 million yuan [2][8] - The net profit for the third quarter was only 26.97 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 92.55% [2][8] Revenue Sources and Market Conditions - The main revenue source for Kouzi Jiao is the Anhui provincial market, particularly the Kouzi Year series priced between 100 and 400 yuan, which is significantly impacted by current market conditions [3][9] - High-end liquor revenue decreased by 27.98%, while mid-range liquor fell by 15.38%, with only low-end liquor showing a growth of 25.09% [3][9] - The company has noted a slowdown in terminal sales, particularly after the implementation of a ban on alcohol, which has adversely affected the demand for mid to high-end liquor [3][9] Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - The operating cash flow has turned negative for the first time, with a net outflow of 390 million yuan, and the cash collection ratio has dropped to 93.95% [4][10] - Inventory levels have increased significantly, and fixed assets have risen by 4.82% to a new high of 3.239 billion yuan [4][10] - The production capacity utilization rate is only 49%, with actual production capacity at 39,500 kiloliters against a designed capacity of 80,000 kiloliters [4][10] Shareholder Actions - The controlling shareholder, Liu Ansheng, has initiated a share reduction plan, selling 1.67% of his shares for 329 million yuan, reducing his ownership to 8.94% [5][11] - Liu Ansheng has also pledged a significant portion of his shares, with 2.17539 million shares pledged, representing 40.68% of his holdings, and multiple pledges have reached the margin call threshold [5][11]