对话基金经理毛丁丁：A股创新药的投资逻辑是什么？今年医药板块还会继续涨吗？｜基遇2026

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its recovery in 2026, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, driven by three main factors: the ongoing trend of international expansion, stabilization of domestic demand alongside macroeconomic recovery, and the overall valuation of the sector remaining below historical averages [5][6]. Group 1: Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - In 2025, the pharmaceutical sector showed an overall recovery, but with significant structural differences, as the Shenwan Biopharmaceutical Index rose by approximately 10%, underperforming the CSI 300 [4]. - The innovative drug sector was the standout performer, although its strong performance was not consistent throughout the year, experiencing a notable correction from September onwards due to rapid price increases earlier in the year [4][7]. - The valuation of representative indices like the Hang Seng Healthcare and Shenwan Chemical Pharmaceutical exceeded historical averages, necessitating a period of adjustment [4][7]. Group 2: Investment Logic and Trends - The investment logic for innovative drugs in A-shares and Hong Kong shares focuses on policy, capital market cycles, and industry and technology mapping, reflecting the relatively early stage of China's innovative drug industry [5][11]. - The global trend of Chinese innovative drugs is just beginning, with significant competitive advantages in areas like molecular screening and clinical trials, particularly in oncology [8][11]. - The normalization of medical insurance negotiations and the trend of "going global" are identified as two key pricing logic factors for new drugs [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Considerations - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to maintain its upward trend in 2026, supported by the deepening trend of internationalization, improved domestic demand, and favorable valuations [6][8]. - Key considerations for evaluating new drugs include their efficacy compared to existing therapies and the competitive landscape, which significantly impacts their commercial viability [9]. - AI's potential impact on the pharmaceutical industry is recognized, particularly in drug discovery and clinical trials, with a focus on tangible outcomes rather than speculative hype [10].