俄罗斯延长木材出口关税至2028年！中国进口商成本继续被推高

Core Viewpoint - The Kremlin has extended high export tariffs on coniferous and hardwood lumber until December 31, 2028, aiming to restrict the export of raw timber under the guise of lumber and to ensure domestic processing industries have priority access to raw materials [1]. Group 1: Export Tariffs - The export tariffs, effective since 2022, are set at 10% for coniferous lumber with a minimum of €13 per cubic meter, 10% for oak lumber with a minimum of €15 per cubic meter, and 10% for beech and ash lumber with a minimum of €50 per cubic meter [3]. - The extension of these tariffs is expected to increase import costs for Chinese importers of Russian timber, further compressing already thin profit margins [5]. Group 2: Market Impact - In 2025, the Russian timber industry faced challenges due to a strong ruble, weak international demand, and high transportation costs, which have diminished the competitiveness of Russian timber in international markets [5]. - The bilateral timber trade between China and Russia has seen an 8.2% year-on-year decline in the first eleven months of 2025, with China accounting for approximately 60% of Russia's timber exports [5]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The high export tariffs are viewed as a "double-edged sword" for the Russian timber industry; while they may pressure demand and accelerate the elimination of smaller firms lacking processing capabilities, they could also serve as a critical policy tool for driving mandatory transformation and upgrading within the industry [7]. - The effectiveness of this policy will largely depend on the global market's acceptance and willingness to pay a premium for high-value forest products from Russia, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [7].