黄金，或已成全球头号储备资产

Core Insights - Gold has potentially surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds to become the largest reserve asset globally, driven by significant price increases and central bank purchases [1][3] - As of November 30, the total official gold reserves held by foreign governments exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at approximately $3.82 trillion, compared to nearly $3.88 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities [1][3] Group 1 - The value of U.S. official gold reserves is projected to reach $3.93 trillion by year-end, surpassing the value of foreign-held U.S. debt for the first time since 1996 [3] - The rise in gold's status as a reserve asset reflects a decreasing exposure to the U.S. financial system, possibly due to dollar depreciation and risks associated with U.S. government actions [3] - Gold prices increased by 66% over the past year, highlighting its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid market uncertainties [3] Group 2 - The long-term trajectory of gold prices is influenced by various factors, including U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, interest rates, inflation, and central bank purchasing trends [4] - Market sentiment on gold's future is mixed, with most institutions optimistic about price increases, while some, like Capital Economics, predict a decline in 2026 due to potential shifts in retail investment demand [4] - Recent price surges have been attributed to retail investor demand, which may diminish if expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are proven incorrect [4]