AI搜索战局生变：Gemini 12月流量环比激增24%，ChatGPT下降9%

Core Insights - The AI search market is experiencing significant changes, with Gemini's daily web traffic increasing by 24% month-over-month, while ChatGPT's traffic decreased by 9% [1][2][6] - Analysts suggest that the slowdown in ChatGPT's growth may be linked to Google's introduction of the "AI Overviews" feature and the rising popularity of Gemini, leading to an underestimation of Google's search business potential by Wall Street [1][11] Traffic Analysis - In December, Gemini's global daily traffic surged by 567% year-over-year to 56 million, while ChatGPT's traffic grew by 49% to 178 million [2] - Month-over-month, Google experienced a 1% decline in traffic, ChatGPT saw a 9% decrease, and Bing dropped by 9%, whereas Gemini's traffic rose by 24.2% [6] - In the U.S. market, ChatGPT's year-over-year growth was 86%, reaching 31 million daily users, which is 6% of Google's traffic [6] Mobile User Engagement - According to Sensor Tower, Gemini's mobile daily active users increased by 351% year-over-year to 62 million, with a month-over-month growth of 17% [7] - ChatGPT's mobile daily active users grew by 262% year-over-year to 39.2 million, with a modest month-over-month increase of 2% [7] - Despite the rise of AI applications, Google's core search market position remains strong, with its global search market share increasing to 90.8% [7] Emerging AI Platforms - Other emerging large language model platforms, while growing rapidly, still have relatively small user bases compared to Google [8][10] - Perplexity.ai's traffic grew by 92% year-over-year to 6 million, but saw an 8% month-over-month decline [8] - Grok, associated with Elon Musk, showed a month-over-month increase of 11% to 9 million users [8] Investment Outlook - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating on Alphabet, setting a target price of $335, citing the ongoing appeal of Gemini 3.0 and its potential to drive traffic and app downloads [11] - The report indicates that the increasing share of AI-native formats in Google search could enhance user engagement and conversion rates, potentially exceeding market expectations by 2026 [11] - Alphabet's current trading price is approximately 24 times the estimated GAAP EPS for 2027, which is considered reasonable given its expected double-digit revenue growth and strong AI assets [11]