短剧出海，遇到了网文“同款困境”

Core Insights - The Chinese micro-drama market reached a scale of 37.39 billion yuan in 2023, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 267.65% [1] - The domestic micro-drama market is expected to surpass movie box office revenue for the first time in 2024, with a notable shift in the online video industry landscape by 2025 [3] - The overseas micro-drama market is projected to generate a total revenue of 1.525 billion USD from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 194.9% [3] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic short drama industry has a well-structured supply chain, with upstream IP copyright holders, midstream content producers, and downstream distribution channels [6] - The production capacity for short dramas in China exceeds 40,000 episodes annually, with 80%-90% of overseas content being dubbed versions of domestic dramas [7] - The profitability of domestic short dramas is under pressure, as exemplified by the financial struggles of companies like Zhongwen Online, which reported a net loss of 294 million yuan in Q3 2025 despite a revenue increase of 31.43% [12] International Expansion Challenges - The overseas micro-drama market faces challenges such as localization difficulties and the complexity of operating in foreign markets, leading to a lack of blockbuster hits [4] - TikTok's new feature "TikTok Minis" aims to enhance the distribution of short dramas by allowing users to watch them directly within the app, potentially changing the landscape for overseas short dramas [5] - The reliance on dubbed dramas for international markets is prevalent, with local productions accounting for only 10%-20% of the content [7] Future Outlook - The global micro-drama market is expected to reach 3 billion USD in revenue by 2025, nearly tripling from the previous year [3] - The trend of localizing content is crucial for success in international markets, but it also increases production costs and complexity [20] - The emergence of AI in content production may help reduce costs and improve efficiency, as seen with platforms like Vigloo [24] Competitive Landscape - Domestic companies are facing increased competition from local entities in international markets, with significant investments from major players like Disney and Fox in short drama production [22] - The balance between localization and maintaining cost-effective production methods remains a critical challenge for companies looking to expand internationally [20][21] - The cultural nuances in storytelling and audience preferences present inherent challenges in the localization of short dramas [18][19]