德银测算“天地算力”成本：太空数据中心部署成本追平地面，大约需要15年，目前高出约7倍

Core Insights - The cost of deploying space data centers is projected to be 6.7 times that of ground data centers in 2026, decreasing to 2.6 times by 2032, with cost parity expected around 2030 [1][6][13] Cost Comparison: Four Key Dimensions - Launch Costs: The primary economic barrier for space data centers is the cost of rocket launches. Current reusable Falcon 9 launch costs are approximately $1,600 per kilogram, while the Starship is expected to reduce this to $700 per kilogram initially, and potentially below $70 per kilogram in the future, representing a reduction of over 95% [3] - Hardware Manufacturing Costs: The cost of hardware for space data centers is primarily tied to satellite platforms. The cost per kilowatt for V3 satellites is $42,000, dropping to $24,000 for V4, and further to $14,500 for V5 satellites, marking a 65.5% reduction over five years [4] - Full-Cycle Costs: Space data centers will gradually show cost advantages over time, with energy costs approaching zero due to high solar exposure and low degradation rates, while ground data centers face ongoing operational expenses [5] - Scale Effects: The cost gap for a 1 GW data center is expected to narrow significantly, with space deployment costs projected at $107 billion in 2026 compared to $16 billion for ground centers, reducing to 1.4 times by the time costs stabilize [6] Technological Breakthroughs: Three Key Drivers - Rocket Technology Innovation: The reduction in launch costs is heavily reliant on the maturity of reusable technology, with predictions that Starship's launch costs will drop to $10 million per launch, significantly lowering deployment costs for space data centers [7] - Satellite Platform Upgrades: Advances in satellite technology focus on increasing power density and efficiency, with the latest satellites achieving a power increase from 50 kW to 150 kW while only increasing weight by 25% [8] - Supply Chain Maturity: The introduction of mini laser terminals has alleviated previous supply chain bottlenecks, enabling significant cost reductions in communication systems for space data centers [9] Strategic Premium: Decision Logic Beyond Costs - Deployment Speed: Space data centers can be deployed much faster than ground centers, which often take years to build due to regulatory and infrastructure challenges [10] - Risk Mitigation: Space data centers can avoid risks associated with natural disasters and regulatory changes that ground centers face, providing a strategic advantage [11] - Long-Term Value: Space data centers are essential for deep space exploration, enabling autonomous edge computing and supporting long-term missions [12] Future Outlook: Cost Parity in the 2030s - The cost parity between space and ground data centers is anticipated to occur in the 2030s, influenced by potential breakthroughs in ground center costs and accelerated technological advancements in space data centers [13][14]