2026年，人民币汇率还会涨吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations of the RMB against the USD in 2025, highlighting the significant psychological impact of the RMB breaking the 7 mark and the overall trends in currency valuation and economic indicators during the year [2][3]. Currency Trends - By the end of 2025, the USD/RMB exchange rate was around 7, with the onshore closing at 6.9901 and the midpoint at 7.0348 [2]. - The RMB appreciated over 4% against the USD throughout the year, while the USD index fell by approximately 9% to 10% [3]. - The RMB's effective exchange rate against a basket of currencies did not necessarily strengthen, indicating a complex relationship with other currencies [3]. Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 were reported at 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8%, respectively, showing a trend of "high at the beginning and low at the end" [3]. - The RMB began to strengthen in the second half of the year, correlating with a recovery in risk assets, particularly from November onwards [3]. Asset Performance - Precious metals and certain industrial metals performed well in 2025, with silver and gold showing particularly strong results [3]. - Oil prices remained relatively weak, indicating ongoing market adjustments regarding supply and demand [3]. RMB's Role in Commodities - The RMB's fluctuations are expected to influence the narrative around China's demand for commodities, with the central bank emphasizing the importance of market-driven exchange rates and maintaining stability [5]. - The RMB's trajectory over the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2025) is characterized by an "N-shaped" pattern, with a cumulative depreciation of about 7% against the USD [5][6]. Future Outlook - For the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030), the RMB is expected to exhibit higher elasticity and dual-directional fluctuations rather than a simple appreciation or depreciation trend [7]. - The cross-border use of the RMB is increasing, with its share in non-bank cross-border receipts reaching 53% in the first half of 2025, which may enhance its resilience against external shocks [7]. 2026 Predictions - The main theme for the RMB in 2026 is expected to be finding a balanced range amid USD fluctuations and domestic recovery, rather than a clear trend of appreciation or depreciation [8][10]. - Three scenarios for the RMB's performance in 2026 are outlined: optimistic (6.80-6.90), neutral (6.90-7.10), and pessimistic (7.10-7.30), depending on external factors such as USD strength and risk premiums [9].