对话基金经理毛丁丁：A股创新药的投资逻辑是什么？今年医药板块还会继续涨吗？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its recovery in 2026, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, driven by three main factors: the ongoing trend of international expansion, stabilization of domestic demand alongside macroeconomic recovery, and overall valuations remaining below historical averages [2][3]. Group 1: Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - In 2025, the pharmaceutical sector showed a structural recovery, with the innovation drug segment being the standout performer, while other areas like medical devices and services lagged [1][3]. - The innovation drug sector experienced significant growth primarily from March to July 2025, followed by a correction starting in September due to rapid price increases and overvaluation [1][3]. - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector in 2025 was characterized by a 10% increase in the Shenwan Biopharmaceutical Index, which underperformed compared to the CSI 300 [1]. Group 2: Investment Logic and Trends - The investment logic for innovative drugs in A-shares, H-shares, and U.S. stocks is fundamentally similar, focusing on drug technology characteristics, global competition, and valuation factors influenced by policies and interest rates [2][8]. - The Chinese innovative drug industry is still in its early stages, with significant growth potential, and the investment focus in A-shares and H-shares is more on policy, capital market cycles, and industry mapping [2][8]. - The trend of "going global" for innovative drugs and medical devices is accelerating, which is expected to enhance the competitive edge of Chinese companies in various disease areas, especially oncology [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to maintain its upward trend in 2026, supported by the deepening internationalization of the industry and improved domestic demand due to economic recovery [2][3]. - Key risks to monitor include potential unexpected tightening of medical insurance cost controls, U.S. healthcare reforms, and the pace of interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [3][9]. - The valuation of the pharmaceutical sector remains below the historical average of the past 15 years, indicating a relative advantage for investors [3].