五年萎缩84%：美元基金在中国一级市场的“失落时代”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese primary market is transitioning from a dual-driven ecosystem of RMB and USD funds to a predominantly RMB-driven landscape, with USD funds experiencing a significant decline in both investment quantity and amount [1][2]. Investment Trends - Over the past five years, the total investment amount from USD funds has shrunk by more than 84%, with their market share dropping from one-third to just 10% [2]. - In terms of transaction numbers, USD investment events decreased from 871 in 2021 (9.6% of the market) to 225 by 2025 (2.5% of the market) [4]. - Conversely, RMB investment events increased from 90.4% to 97.5%, achieving near-total market coverage [5]. Financial Changes - In 2021, USD capital accounted for 5,329 billion RMB (35.9% market share), while by 2025, this figure plummeted to 827 billion RMB, representing a decline of over 84% and a market share of only 10.1% [6]. - RMB funds' market share rose from 64.1% to 89.9%, establishing a dominant position in capital supply [6]. Factors Behind the Decline of USD Funds - The rise of state-owned and industrial capital has become a significant internal driver, with state-backed investment institutions achieving a direct investment penetration rate of 45% [7]. - The traditional VC financing path has been disrupted, with a "dumbbell" structure emerging in the market, characterized by active early-stage transactions and dominant strategic investments, leading to a gap in growth-stage financing [9]. - External factors include blocked exit channels and geopolitical risks, which have increased uncertainty around traditional exit strategies like the VIE structure and overseas listings [9]. Future of USD Funds - USD funds are likely to transition from being market leaders to niche players, focusing on specialized markets where they can provide unique value [10]. - Potential areas for USD funds include serving as global enablers for Chinese companies aiming for international expansion, acting as catalysts in cutting-edge technology sectors, and rediscovering their roots in early-stage venture capital [10][11].