短剧2026：加速冲向“50亿”，却也在加速“变旧”

Core Insights - The short drama industry is expected to see a significant increase in the number of works surpassing 5 billion views by 2026, indicating a further elevation in its industry position [1] - The industry is transitioning from a phase of explosive growth to a more structured production phase, characterized by stable operations and professional management [1][3] Industry Structure Changes - The participant structure in the industry is shifting, with small creators and short video teams exiting or transforming, replaced by mature companies with production and project management capabilities [3] - The expansion in scale has led to a focus on "quality" productions, but this has diminished the original advantages of being small and agile [3][5] - The production cycle is lengthening, and budget allocations are increasingly directed towards actors, marketing, and scene consumption, weakening the cost advantage of short dramas [3][5] Commercial Dynamics - The commercial drive for short dramas primarily comes from platform-side advertising budgets rather than user-initiated payments, indicating a lack of a sustainable revenue model [5][21] - The industry has not established a direct value link with users, relying instead on platform distribution, which limits the potential for independent revenue generation [21][32] - Reducing reliance on user payments and focusing on platform-driven growth may restrict long-term innovation and sustainability in the industry [21][27] Production Trends - The average production team size for short dramas has increased significantly, reflecting a trend towards more traditional filmmaking practices, with production costs rising to millions [11] - The industry is experiencing a convergence of production methods with traditional television, leading to a decrease in narrative innovation and an increase in content homogenization [15][20] Future Outlook - The growth of the short drama industry is likely to continue in terms of scale, but the underlying structural logic remains unchanged, potentially reinforcing traditional media frameworks [34] - For the industry to achieve meaningful breakthroughs, it must reconstruct its business model to establish a direct revenue link with audiences, exploring alternative commercial channels [32][35]