2026年，美联储迎战“三重困境”

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Divergence and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divergence, with a notable split in opinions regarding interest rate adjustments, as evidenced by the December meeting where 9 voted for a 25 basis point cut and 3 opposed, marking the highest dissent since 2019 [1] - The dot plot indicates a divided outlook, with 7 officials advocating for no changes until 2026, while 8 support at least two rate cuts [1] - Some officials predict inflation will peak in Q1 2025 due to tariffs, while others express concerns about persistent high inflation [1] Group 2: Employment Market Trends - The U.S. job market is cooling, with job vacancies dropping to 7.15 million in November 2025, a decrease of 885,000 from the previous year, exceeding market expectations [2] - The ADP reported a modest increase of 41,000 in private sector non-farm employment in December 2025, falling short of the consensus estimate of 48,000 [2] Group 3: Labor Market Characteristics - The current labor market is characterized by "low hiring, low layoffs," reflecting cautious decision-making by companies amid economic uncertainty [3] - Tight immigration policies are contributing to a reduced labor supply, further entrenching this cautious hiring environment [3] - While AI can enhance productivity, it may not independently support stable economic growth without broad employment increases [3] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - The economic landscape for 2026 is expected to remain complex, with the Federal Reserve facing challenges in balancing employment and inflation risks [4] - The market anticipates a potential shift towards a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, but achieving a balance between employment and inflation will be difficult [4] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under unprecedented scrutiny, particularly with political pressures from figures like President Trump [6] - The upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, including the potential appointment of a more dovish chair, could influence monetary policy direction [7] Group 6: Leadership Transition - Jerome Powell's term as chair will end in May 2026, raising questions about his future role within the Federal Reserve [9] - There is speculation about whether Powell will remain on the board after his chairmanship, which could impact the Fed's independence and policy direction [10][11]