别再只当“避险港”！美股医疗板块撕下防御标签 2026年投资就看这三大风口

Core Viewpoint - The healthcare sector in the U.S. stock market, traditionally viewed as a defensive sector, is undergoing a transformation, becoming more attractive to investors seeking growth opportunities as it outperformed the S&P 500 index in the last quarter [1]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The healthcare sector rebounded strongly, becoming the best-performing sector among the 11 major industries in the S&P 500, driven by a tariff agreement with the Trump administration, intense merger and acquisition activity, and the promising outlook for new obesity drugs [1]. - Many investment professionals expect the upward momentum in the healthcare sector to continue until 2026, as investors shift focus from high-valuation tech stocks to healthcare stocks perceived as offering better returns [1]. Group 2: Key Trends in Healthcare - The obesity drug market is expected to remain a hot topic, with oral obesity treatment drugs becoming the core catalyst for growth in this sector by 2026 [3]. - The FDA is anticipated to make a decision on Eli Lilly's oral obesity treatment drug in early 2026, while Novo Nordisk's similar drug was approved in December last year, indicating a new growth opportunity in the obesity drug market, projected to reach $95 billion by the end of the decade [4]. - The inclusion of injectable obesity drugs in Medicare coverage starting in 2026 is expected to benefit more patients and drive market growth [4]. Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - A surge in mergers and acquisitions in the healthcare sector is expected in the second half of 2025, fueled by lower financing costs anticipated from Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with 28 deals over $1 billion announced or completed by December last year, surpassing the 25 deals in 2024 [7]. - Major pharmaceutical companies are holding approximately $200 billion in cash reserves, providing them with ample flexibility for acquisitions, especially as many face revenue gaps due to expiring patents [7]. - The IPO market for biotech companies is showing signs of recovery, with $11 billion raised in 2025, a 61% increase from 2024, reflecting investor enthusiasm for this high-risk sector [8]. Group 4: Insurance Sector Challenges - The growth prospects for health insurance companies face uncertainty, as they encounter rising costs in Medicare and the Affordable Care Act markets, leading to significant stock price declines for major players like Molina Healthcare, UnitedHealth, and Centene in 2025 [9]. - Despite the challenges, some investors believe the worst may be over for the insurance sector, as the current stock prices reflect potential risks, although the expiration of subsidies related to the Affordable Care Act could lead to millions of Americans dropping insurance coverage [9]. - There are still significant value investment opportunities in the health insurance sector, but caution is advised until the industry's profitability outlook stabilizes [10].