白银大跌5%！高盛：全球库存错配，极端双向波动行情远未结束

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the silver market is experiencing extreme volatility due to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks, with a significant mismatch in silver inventory locations causing price distortions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Silver prices have dropped 5.00% in a single day, currently standing at approximately $74 per troy ounce, reflecting an 8% increase year-to-date [1][3]. - The London silver inventory has reached critically low levels, exacerbated by concerns over potential tariffs last year, which led to a significant amount of silver being moved to U.S. vaults [3]. - The current environment has increased the price sensitivity of silver, with a typical weekly demand of 1,000 metric tons now pushing prices up by approximately 7%, compared to the usual 2% [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Despite the significant price increase, investor demand for silver may not be overstretched, as holdings in silver ETFs backed by physical silver remain below the peak levels of 2021 [4]. - The ongoing trend of interest rate cuts and diversification among investors is likely to continue driving up silver ETF holdings [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If policy clarity leads to silver returning from U.S. vaults to London, prices may decline; however, persistent policy uncertainty could keep silver in U.S. storage [5]. - Historical patterns suggest that even with clear policy changes regarding tariffs, a significant portion of silver may remain in U.S. vaults, leading to continued extreme market price behavior [5].