初请失业金降温与生产率猛增同框 AI洪流之下美国经济“软着陆”底色愈发清晰

Core Insights - The U.S. labor productivity accelerated to its strongest growth in two years in Q3, driven by AI advancements like ChatGPT, which is helping to suppress wage-driven inflation pressures [1][2][4] - Initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 208,000, slightly below market expectations, indicating a recovering labor market [1][4] Group 1: Productivity and Labor Costs - Non-farm productivity in the U.S. surged at an annualized rate of 4.9% in Q3, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 3% [1][2] - Unit labor costs unexpectedly fell by 1.9%, marking the first consecutive quarterly decline since 2019, which indicates a strong productivity increase that is helping to control wage inflation [2][4][7] Group 2: Employment Trends - The increase in initial jobless claims suggests that layoffs are not worsening, which is essential for a "soft landing" in the economy [2][4] - Despite a slowdown in the labor market expected in 2025, the U.S. economy grew robustly in Q3, closely linked to the surge in productivity [4][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The latest data indicates that U.S. companies are leveraging AI to maintain high efficiency with fewer employees, which may lead to further productivity gains [7] - Economic indicators suggest a potential for moderate expansion in the job market, with December showing an increase in hiring and a decrease in announced layoffs [8][9]