Kouzijiao(SH:603589) Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao·2026-01-08 15:04Core Viewpoint - The first performance forecast for 2025 from Kuozi Jiao indicates a significant decline in net profit, attributed to market conditions and changes in consumer demand [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Kuozi Jiao expects a net profit of 660 million to 828 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50% to 60% [4]. - The company's non-recurring net profit is projected to be approximately 645 million to 811 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 49.65% to 59.93% compared to the previous year [4]. - In Q1 2025, Kuozi Jiao reported revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%, with net profit rising 3.6% to 610 million yuan [4]. - By Q2 2025, revenue plummeted by 48.48% to 721 million yuan, with net profit dropping 70.91% to 105 million yuan [5]. - In Q3 2025, revenue further declined by 46.2% to 640 million yuan, and net profit fell by 92.5% to 30 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in performance is attributed to intensified market differentiation and channel changes within the liquor industry, alongside a downturn in demand and policy shifts [4]. - High-end product sales significantly decreased, impacting core profit sources and overall revenue [4]. - The competitive landscape in the Anhui liquor market has intensified, with Kuozi Jiao experiencing revenue declines both in provincial and out-of-province markets [5]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - Kuozi Jiao's gross margin fell by 9.2 percentage points to 62.7% due to pressure on mid-to-high-end product sales [6]. - The company aims to double its sales volume as part of its "100 billion Kuozi" strategic plan, although current trends suggest challenges ahead [6]. - The company's cash collection also decreased by 48.9% to 730 million yuan, indicating pressure on channel returns [6]. Group 4: Insider Activity - During the turbulent performance period, the controlling shareholder, Liu Ansheng, liquidated over 300 million yuan through stock sales [8]. - In July 2025, Liu Ansheng announced plans to reduce his holdings by up to 10 million shares, amounting to 1.67% of the company's total shares [8]. - Since 2018, Liu Ansheng has reportedly "cashed out" over 1 billion yuan through various means, including share reductions and transfers [8].